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7julio 2017

Pese a la devaluación, los autos argentinos cuestan más en dólares que hace 20 años

Después de un largo período de calma y perfil bajo, el dólar en los últimos días dio un salto que lo devolvió a las tapas de los diarios. Hasta mediados de junio se mantuvo contenido por debajo de los $16,50 pero empezó a romper récord tras récord a medida que julio se acercaba hasta llegar ayer a los $17,40. Son varias las causas. Desde un exceso de emisión al “efecto preelectoral” pasando por la mayor presión que ejerce el pago del aguinaldo junto con la fuerte demanda que genera la llegada de las vacaciones de invierno por los viajes al exterior. Todo impacta. De la misma manera que impactan las fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio en la economía en un ir y venir que no tiene fin.

El sector automotor es sumamente sensible a estos vaivenes y lo refleja en el precio de los 0 km. Un relevamiento realizado por este diario muestra que, aún con la suba de estos días, los valores de los autos medidos en dólares son los más altos de los últimos 20 años. Traducido a un lenguaje más simple se podría decir que en relación con los autos, el dólar “está barato”. Esto podría ratificar también que se mantiene el retraso cambiario.

El modelo más vendido del mercado, el Volkswagen Gol, cuesta hoy u$s12.167 contra los u$s11.525 que valía en febrero del 2016. Hay que remontarse a la época de la convertibilidad, cuando $1 era igual a u$s1 para encontrar un valor mayor. A partir del 2002, nunca estuvo por arriba del precio actual. Pero si se toman modelos de otras marcas, los valores de hoy, en la mayoría de los casos, superan los precios que se registraban en la década menemista. El cuadro adjunto muestra esos ejemplos.

Para este informe se tomaron los modelos más económicos o representativos de las principales marcas desde el 97 hasta hoy. Es cierto que es muy difícil comparar vehículos en un plazo tan largo porque algunos se discontinuaron y otros modificaron su posicionamiento en el mercado y dejaron el lugar a otros. En el primer caso se pueden ubicar el Chevrolet Corsa y el Fiat Uno que se dejaron de vender. Se tomaron, en esos casos, los modelos actuales de más bajo precio como el Prisma Joy y el Mobi. En el segundo caso, se encuentra el Ford Fiesta, que hace 20 años estaba posicionado de manera diferente, por eso el salto de precio. Hoy, el modelo de entrada de gama de esta marca es el Ka. Aun tomándolo como ejemplo, su precio es de u$s13.788 casi u$s1.400 más de lo que valía el Fiesta en el 97. En el caso de Peugeot también hay diferencias, ya que hace 20 años su gama comenzaba con el 205 para ir mutando en 206, 207 y 208.

También durante los últimos años del kirchnerismo, el dólar “blue” alteró la relación de precios. En el 2013, cuando la brecha cambiaria llegó al 70%, el VW Gol costaba u$s10.000 al cambio oficial (al que poca gente accedía y a cuentagotas) mientras que con billetes en la mano equivalía a u$s5.900. Los otros modelos sufrían saltos similares.

Otra salvedad a tener en cuenta es que los valores tomados son los precios de lista. Desde hace meses, muchos de estos autos tienen bonificaciones que los hace más accesibles.

Se eligieron momentos representativos de cada época. En el 97, por el apogeo de la convertibilidad; en mayo de 2002, tras la traumática salida del 1 a 1; en 2005, en medio de la gestión de Néstor Kirchner; en septiembre de 2008, cuando estallaba la crisis financiera internacional y transcurría la (local) del campo; en 2011, con Cristina de Kirchner cerrando su primer mandato; octubre de 2013, con récord de ventas; marzo de 2014, posdevaluación de Axel Kicilloff , en febrero de 2016, cuando se acomodaron los precios tras la devaluación por la salida del “cepo”.

Poradmin 15847

15.847 thoughts on “Pese a la devaluación, los autos argentinos cuestan más en dólares que hace 20 años”

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